Every crisis becomes a test of leadership – it shows which leaders are able to stay on course when forecasts stop working. That is why European economist Prof. Rudy Aernoudt, who has extensive practical experience in business, co-founder of the European Business Angels Network (EBAN) and lecturer in the BMI Executive Institute EMBA programme, encourages leaders to think not about the next quarter, but about the next crisis. According to the professor, today’s leaders must learn to resist the “Excel mindset,” replace forecasts with scenario analysis, and build organizational resilience – not short-term profit.
Prof. Aernoudt’s own career is an example of how theoretical economic principles can turn into practical solutions that shape the business and innovation ecosystem in Europe. Having worked at the European Commission and the Council of Europe, he is the founder of the Foundation for Research in Education and Entrepreneurship (FREE), co-founder of the Growth Academy for Enterprises, and a Senator of the World Business Angels Forum (WBAF).
He speaks here about how leaders can turn knowledge into real change, why “unicorns” are no longer the future, and what “zebra economics” means.
– Professor, in your opinion, what distinguishes leaders who are able to turn knowledge into real change within their organizations or even in the wider economy?
Leaders who can do this, first of all, think differently. They reject the logic of short-term profit. Most companies today still live from quarter to quarter, from one Excel sheet to another. But that logic must change, because we live in a state of permanent crisis – a “permacrisis.” One crisis follows another: the pandemic, war, inflation, climate challenges. So, leaders need to ask a different question – not “How much will I earn this month?” but “Will I be strong enough when the next crisis comes?” That means a complete change of mindset: the priority must be resilience, not short-term profit.
– What does this change in attitude look like in practice? How can leaders act differently?
Everything starts with the tools they use. Traditionally, companies rely on forecasts – they set targets, for example to increase turnover by 10% per year, and adjust their actions accordingly. But today, that approach no longer works. We must move from forecasting to foresight. That means analysing possible scenarios: what might happen in the world and how it would affect your business. Suppose a new military conflict breaks out or supply chains are disrupted – what would that mean for your company? You need several scenarios: the most likely, the most desirable, and the least desirable. And for each of them – a prepared action plan.
For example, Shell once asked: “What if the world runs out of oil?” They had a scenario prepared, and when the oil crisis hit, Shell was ready – that became their competitive advantage. Research shows that organizations that use scenario analysis are more resilient and ultimately earn more than those that rely only on short-term forecasts.
– But that requires a different kind of preparation. How can companies and leaders learn this ability to “anticipate”?
First, they need to understand that scenario analysis is not theory – it’s just good business management. When I talk to executives, I always show data proving that companies that develop scenarios achieve higher long-term value. It’s important to realize there is no universal set of scenarios – the same geopolitical event may have no effect on one company and completely paralyze another. Therefore, it’s essential to devote time to analysis, not just planning. Tracking megatrends helps – for example, demographic change. It’s possible to predict fairly accurately what Lithuania’s average age or education level will be in 20 years. That’s where real foresight begins.
– What else should companies change in order to become truly resilient?
They need to change not only their thinking but also their everyday processes. Today, around 70% of CFOs still work with Excel spreadsheets. That limits perspective – companies plan where they want to be in a month or a year, but rarely assess external factors. And it is those external factors that determine almost half of the results. According to my data, executives devote less than one percent of their time to geopolitics, even though geopolitical changes determine up to 45% of a company’s performance. In other words, most businesses ignore half of the reality that affects their success and failure.
– Which sectors or directions do you consider the most promising in the Baltic region and in Europe over the next decade?
The future will be determined not by sectors but by a shift in values. Today, many talk about “unicorns” – companies valued at more than a billion. But a valuation based on the last investor’s estimate says nothing about the real strength of a company. Look at WeWork or Klarna – their values fell dozens of times within a few years. That’s why I talk about “zebras” – companies that combine profit with social and ethical responsibility. These are businesses whose models are based on values, not just investor expectations. Research shows that young professionals are willing to work for a lower salary if a company’s activities reflect their values. In other words, values are becoming the new measure of profitability.
– And how do investors react to this “zebra” philosophy?
Traditional venture capital funds are focused on a quick exit – they invest for five years and immediately plan how to withdraw. But that exit-driven approach contradicts this value-based economy and long-term resilience. Now we see more and more family offices that invest for a longer period – ten or even twelve years. Such funds still make up only about 3% of the market in Europe, but their model is much more sustainable. I would like the entire venture capital ecosystem to become more “zebra-like” – investing in value, not only in valuation.
– How important is continuous learning in creating such change?
Very important. I like the BMI Executive Institute motto, “Same You. Only Sharper.” That “sharper” means the ability to think differently. The world is becoming ever more complex, so the past helps less and less to predict the future. We must constantly learn, observe what is happening around us, and regularly challenge our own perspectives. As I mentioned, leaders should devote much more time to geopolitics – it’s an investment in the ability to make decisions when we don’t know what tomorrow will bring.
– It is often said that change is happening faster and faster. Does this speed make change less sustainable, or does it actually strengthen its impact?
Speed in itself is not a bad thing. As the philosopher Parmenides said, “You never step into the same river twice.” But that gives us the opportunity to act faster and more efficiently. On one hand, the world is changing rapidly, but at the same time that leaves more time to accomplish other things. It is estimated that artificial intelligence could increase productivity by up to 40%. The question is not “Should we use it?” but “What will we do with the time it saves us?” Some will lay off employees; others will use that time for creativity, new markets, or new ideas. For me, artificial intelligence is a source of freedom, not a threat – if we use it consciously.
– Finally, what advice would you give to leaders preparing for the next decade?
Take a step back. Forget the accounts, the plans, and the question “How much will we earn?” Ask yourself: “What am I really doing? Is my business model still meaningful? Does what I create truly meet people’s needs?” These questions are not answered in a boardroom. Go for a walk with your team by the sea, talk about the future – not just about money, but about how to be useful to society. And then think about how to become a “zebra” – a strong, responsible business that creates long-term, meaningful impact.